2020 Atlantic hurricane season (Jarrell)

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, producing 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. It is also considered to be the final year of the most recent era of high-activity tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30; these dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first system, Abbie, developed on June 12--two months prior to the first system of the previous year--while the final storm of the season, Olympia, transitioned to a extratropical cyclone in the western Atlantic on November 21, over a week before the official end.

Although there were several tropical cyclones to make landfall throughout the season, only a few left a significant impact. Hurricane Izzy made stalled over the Bahamas before making landfall near Port Canaveral, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane, with damage totaling $11.3 billion. A little over two weeks later, Hurricane Kaitlyn tracked through the Virgin Islands, leaving extensive damage throughout the region. Damage amounted to $7 billion, with 16 deaths also attributed to the storm. The impact between these two systems accounted for most of the costs for this season.

Unlike the previous year, an active season was expected from the presence of neutral to warm conditions from the anticipated development of a La Nina. Overall, the forecasts were accurate.

Seasonal forecasts
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1981 to 2010) as 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes, 2.7 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1. NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.

Pre-season forecasts
On December 12, 2019, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, the organization called for 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 106 units. This forecast was based on slightly quicker than average trade winds across the tropical Atlantic and slightly above average sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. On April 2, 2020, forecasters at Colorado State University echoed predictions of an above-average season, forecasting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 150 units. The organization posted significantly heightened probabilities for hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean and hurricanes striking the U.S. coastline. TSR updated their forecast on April 7, predicting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130 units. On April 13, the University of Arizona (UA) predicted a potentially hyperactive hurricane season: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 163 units. A similar prediction of 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes was released by The Weather Company on April 15. Following that, the North Carolina State University released a similar forecast on April 17, also calling for a possibly hyperactive season with 18–22 named storms, 8–11 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes. On May 3, the JMC released its first forecast of the season, calling for 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Mid-season outlooks
On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include a total of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. CSU noted continuing uncertainty about the intensity of the El Niño, but also increasing ocean temperatures, which were near-normal by then. On June 11 the University of Arizona (UA) lowered all of the numbers from its April 13 forecast but maintained that the season would feature above-average activity – 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units. On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast. CSU released their second mid-season outlook on July 9, with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast. On August 5, the CSU released their third mid-season outlook, still retaining the same numbers from their previous forecast, albeit slightly revising the numbers of hurricanes from 6 to 7. TSR released their second and final mid-season outlook on August 6, with the only changes of increasing the number of named storms from 12 to 13. On August 8, the JMC released their second prediction with increasing the chances for 10–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes, suggesting above-average activity.

Hurricane Neil
A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa on October 2. After reaching the central Caribbean, convection intensified near the center and organized into a broad low on October 14, possibly due to a cold front that moved into the region. After a marked increase in convection near and west of the center, a tropical depression developed late on October 16 about 335 mi (539 km) east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. The depression moved northwest towards a ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Initially, the depression intensified gradually, becoming Tropical Storm Neil by noon on October 17. After a decrease in easterly wind shear, however, Neil rapidly deepened while crossing warm waters, reaching hurricane status at 06:00 UTC on October 18 and becoming a major hurricane about 24 hours later, peaking with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h).

After the storm reached peak intensity, upper-level winds and wind shear quickly became unfavorable as Neil tracked north-northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, rapidly weakening the system to a minimal hurricane 24 hours after its peak. It would gradually regain strength as conditions became marginally favorable for intensification near the Gulf of Mexico. Once situated north of the Yucatán Peninsula, Neil briefly reached a second peak intensity as a 100 mph (155 km/h) Category 2 hurricane on October 22. Thereafter, it began to weaken due to dry air and was downgraded to a tropical storm 24 hours following its second peak. The storm briefly tracked west-northwestward and then westward, before becoming nearly stationary in the central Gulf of Mexico. Moving slowly and erratically, Neil weakened further and was downgraded to a tropical depression on October 25. The storm curved southward and completed a cyclonic loop, before being absorbed by a cold front two days later.

Storm names
The following names were used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2020. This is the first time these names were used since the post-2016 naming change, except for Abbie and Caroline, which were previously used in 1968 and 1975, respectively. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2026 season.

Retirement
On April 8, 2021, at the 43rd session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Izzy and Kaitlyn from its rotating naming lists due to the number of deaths and amount of damage they caused, and they will not be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. They will be replaced with Ivanna and Kelsey for the 2026 season, respectively.

Season effects
This is a table of all of the storms that formed in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names – damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2020 USD.